Even if the technology achieves its potential， plenty of people will lose their shirts.
即使人工智能实现其潜能，还是会有很多人倾家荡产。
It already ranks among the biggest investment booms in modern history. This year America’s large tech firms will spend nearly $400bn on the infrastructure needed to run artificial-intelligence （AI） models. OpenAI and Anthropic， the world’s leading model-makers， are raising billions every few months; their combined valuation is approaching half a trillion dollars. Analysts reckon that by the end of 2028 the sums spent worldwide on data centres will exceed $3trn.
在现代史上，这已然跻身规模最大的投资热潮之列。今年，美国大型科技公司将在运行人工智能（AI）模型所需的基础设施上投入近4000亿美元。全球领先的AI模型开发商OpenAI和Anthropic每隔数月即融资数十亿美元，两家公司总估值接近5000亿美元。分析师预测，到2028年底，全球建设数据中心的总花费将超过3万亿美元。
The scale of these bets is so vast that it is worth asking what will happen at payback time. Even if the technology succeeds， plenty of people will lose their shirts. And if it doesn’t， the economic and financial pain will be swift and severe.
这些赌博式的投资规模巨大，真该想想投资的回报如何。即便这项技术成功，仍将有许多投资者血本无归。而倘若该技术失败，经济与金融将会遭受迅速且剧烈的打击。
Investors always flock to promising technologies， but the AI rush is more extreme than many past booms. Boosters say that artificial general intelligence （AGI）—models that are better than the average human at most cognitive tasks—could be only a few years away. The first firm to achieve it could reap unimaginable returns. Investors and innovators know they may not be backing the right model. But if they spend slowly and cautiously， they may as well not bother to spend at all.
投资者总是蜂拥追逐前景广阔的技术，但当前这场AI热潮比以往许多热潮都更为极端。鼓吹者宣称，通用人工智能（AGI）——在大多数认知任务上超越普通人类水平的模型——可能仅需数年便能实现。首家获此技术的公司可能得到难以想象的收益。投资者与创新者深知自己的押注未必正确，但若投资步伐迟缓或过于谨慎，则无异于主动放弃。
Consequently， a relentless investment race is under way， with big tech firms splurging on the computing power needed to build the biggest models. A growing cast of extra players， from property developers to electricity generators， has been drawn in. Oracle is the latest to join the party. Its value surged on September 10th after it published an ambitious forecast for its AI related cloud business， briefly turning its boss， Larry Ellison， into the world’s richest man.
因此，一场激烈的投资竞赛如火如荼展开了，为构建最大的模型，大型科技公司在算力上投入重金。从房地产开发商到发电企业，越来越多的行业卷入了这场浪潮。甲骨文公司是最新一例：公司雄心勃勃地公布进军AI云业务后，9月10日，其市值应声暴涨，而其老板拉里·埃里森也一度成为世界首富。
No matter what happens， many investors will lose money. In the rosiest scenario AGI will arrive and usher in a new world of economic growth of perhaps 20% a year. Some shareholders would enjoy astronomical returns; many others would face big losses.
无论结局如何，很多投资者都会面临亏损。
